Robin Horsfall
The Great Drone War!
Ukraine is successfully stretching Russia's air defences. With an active 1000km border Russia has commited most all of its ground to air defences to front lines in Donbas, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. Even with these defences in place, successful drone attacks still take place against ground forces.
Attacks have continued to take place against the Kerch Bridge which was damaged again two weeks ago putting one lane out of action. Sebastopol the main Russian port in Crimea has received repeated strikes. No matter how hard Russia tries in cannot defend everywhere.
Despite limited artillery ammunition, Ukraine has ramped up the production of drones to one million per year and hopes to double that in 2024. In many ways this will compensate for the shortage of 155mm artillery rounds required for land offensives.
With Russian air defences stretched along the front lines gaps were bound to appear, opening routes for attacks on Russian infrastructure. Over last weekend three more oil refineries were hit hard, making an estimated sixteen strike on oil refineries inside Russia in the past two weeks.
When Russian missile air defences operate against drone attacks they reveal their positions, which in turn make them vulnerable unless they move. While they change position they are inoperable creating even larger holes to fly drones through.
Russia relies almost solely on oil for revenue. Refineries are large fixed targets. They cannot be hidden or moved. The whole Russian economy needs them. Ukraine has no such dependency. It is much easier to put refineries out of action than fields of crops.
In the coming months Russia will continue to make dire threats of escalation in the hope of influencing the populations of western governments. It is hard to comprehend 'escalation' when Russia cannot even defeat Ukraine fighting alone. Putin will make gestures about ceasefires, perhaps with President Macron. Macron is in danger of making a fool of himself if he thinks a ceasefire will help Ukraine.
Soon, two million drones will be operating in swarms against fixed targets that Russia needs to survive. To survive Russia's economy needs to stop the drones, I don't see how they can.
Ukriane has penetrated Russian air defences as far north as St Petersburg, and 1000km East into Russia. Drones are cheap to produce, versatile, portable, easy to operate and deadly. There is a tipping point coming when Russia must choose to lose ignominiously, withdraw but retain a nation state, or collapse from within.
Slava Ukraini!
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Robin Horsfall
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