Klimaforskerne regner videre.
For spesielt interesserte:
WE ALREADY BOUGHT 2 DEGREES. WE JUST HAVEN'T BURNED THEM YET.
We are not trying to AVOID 2 degrees. We already own the fuel for 3.1 degrees. It's in the stock market.
The Climate Clock in New York says 2 years, 10 months left to 1.5°C.
The truth is, we already passed it.
This is what happens if we cut NOTHING from today:
NOW -> End 2028 [3.1 years] = 1.5°C
Budget: 130 GtCO2 (130 billion metric tons) (one billion metric tons = 1 Gt)
Burned: 113 billion barrels of oil + 12,400 bcm of fossil (natural) gas (1 bcm = 1 billion cubic meters of natural gas, fossil methane - CH4) + 24.8 Gt of coal
That's only 4.6% of what fossil companies already own and sold to investors.
2028 -> 2036 = 1.7°C: Total 490 GtCO2 - 427B (billion barrels of crude oil) + 46,700 bcm gas
2036 -> 2039 = 1.8°C: Total 675 GtCO2 - 588B barrels
2039 -> 2043 = 1.9°C: Total 860 GtCO2 - 750B barrels
2043 -> 2050 = 2.0°C - THE POINT OF NO RETURN
Total: 1,050 GtCO2 - 915 billion barrels + 100,000 bcm gas + 200 Gt coal
We burned only 1/4 of proven reserves. And we are done.
After that, Nature helps us warm:
2050 -> 2075 = 2.5°C: 2,075 Gt total. Permafrost starts releasing methane.
2075 -> 2097 = 3.0°C: 3,350 Gt total (3,050 human + 300 from Nature)
2097 -> 2132 = 4.0°C: 5,450 Gt total (4,550 human + 900 from Nature)
We are not trying to AVOID 2 degrees. We already own the fuel for 3.1 degrees. It's in the stock market.
Italy and the Mediterranean are a climate hotspot: we warm 20% faster than the global average. +2°C for us is already happening.
And if permafrost and methane hydrates go - 1,500 Gt of frozen carbon under Siberia and 2,000+ Gt of methane trapped in the ocean floor - it's game over.
Data: Carbon budgets from IPCC AR6 WG1 (2023), remaining budget for 1.5°C/2.0°C. Proven reserves data from Carbon Tracker Initiative & SEC filings. Elaboration by Ettore Greco based on linear Gt-to-fuel conversion (0.87 bn barrels / 95 bcm / 0.19 Gt coal per GtCO2). Nature feedback estimate from Permafrost Carbon Network.
Links:
.
www.ipcc.ch
The latest estimates from the Global Carbon Project (GCP) show that total worldwide CO2 emissions in 2022 have reached near-record levels.
www.carbonbrief.org
2. Proven reserves - Carbon Tracker Initiative & SEC
每年花费在“不可燃烧”的化石燃料上的资金高达6740亿美元,其中的巨大金融风险并未得到注意。 新研究呼吁监管机构、各国政府和投资者共同行动,根据碳预算重新衡量能源商业模式,防止未来十年出现6万亿美元的碳泡沫。
carbontracker.org
SEC filings:
https://www.sec.gov - ricerca "climate risk fossil fuel reserves"
3. Permafrost Carbon Network - Nature feedback:
www.permafrostcarbon.org
Schuur et al. 2015 - A simplified, data-constrained approach to estimate the permafrost carbon–climate feedback - USGS/Permafrost Carbon Network